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Burning all the oil and gas from new discoveries and newly approved projects since 2021 would emit at least 14.1bn tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2), according to Carbon Brief analysis of Global Energy Monitor (GEM) data.
This would be equivalent to more than an entire year’s worth of China’s emissions.
It includes 8GtCO2 from new oil and gas reserves discovered in 2022-23 and another 6GtCO2 from projects that were approved for development over the same period.
These have all gone ahead since the International Energy Agency (IEA) concluded, in 2021, that “no new oil and gas fields” would be required if the world were to limit global warming to 1.5C .
Since then, world leaders gathering at the COP28 summit at the end of 2023 have also agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels”.
Despite this, nations such as Guyana and Namibia are emerging as entirely new hotspots for oil and gas development. At the same time, major historic fossil-fuel producers, such as the US and Iran, are still going ahead with large new projects.
Additionally, oil majors such as TotalEnergies and Shell that have made public commitments to climate action, are among the biggest players investing in new oil and gas extraction around the world.
In 2021, the IEA issued its first “net-zero roadmap”, setting out a pathway for the world to limit warming to 1.5C. The influential agency concluded that:
“Beyond projects already committed as of 2021, there are no new oil-and-gas fields approved for development in our pathway.”
This statement has become a rallying cry for campaigners and leaders pushing for a phase out of fossil fuels.
The IEA has since clarified that there would be no need for new oil and gas developments if the world gets on track for 1.5C. It has also slightly softened its language, by allowing for new oil and gas projects with a “short-lead time” within its 1.5C scenario.
Yet it has also warned of the risk of “overinvestment” in new developments, noting that current spending is “almost double” what would be needed under its 1.5C pathway.
In any case, the IEA’s message has been widely ignored by oil and gas companies, which have continued to search for new extraction opportunities.
In its new global oil and gas extraction tracker, GEM identifies 50 new sites discovered in 2022 and 2023, after the IEA issued its initial net-zero roadmap. The oil and gas reserves from these projects amount to 20.3m barrels of oil equivalent (Mboe).
The tracker also identified a further 45 projects that have reached “final investment decision” (FID) since the IEA’s roadmap, with an extra 16Mboe of reserves. FID is the point at which companies decide to move ahead with a project’s construction and development.
If all the oil and gas in the newly discovered reserves is burned in the coming years, an extra 8GtCO2 would be released into the atmosphere, according to Carbon Brief analysis. Adding the reserves discovered between 2022-23 brings this total to 14.1GtCO2.
This is equivalent to more than one-third of the CO2 emissions from global energy use in 2022, or all the emissions from burning oil that year, as shown in the chart below.
These findings are in line with mounting evidence that both company and government plans for fossil fuels are not aligned with their own climate goals.
According to the most recent UN Environment Programme “production gap” report, companies are planning for gas and oil production that is 82% and 29% higher, respectively, than would be needed in a 1.5C pathway.
The remaining “carbon budget” of emissions that can be released while retaining a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5C is just 275GtCO2, according to the Global Carbon Budget consortium of scientists. Burning all of the contents of the new oil and gas schemes identified by GEM would use up 5% of this remaining budget.
Moreover, the GEM report points out that new projects take, on average, 11 years to start producing significant amounts of oil and gas. This means that most will not enter production until the 2030s.
By this point, according to the IEA, fossil-fuel demand would have fallen by “more than 25%” if the world gets on to a 1.5C-compliant pathway.
GEM also notes that its analysis likely underestimates the scale of new fossil fuel developments. It excludes smaller sites and those where the size has not been publicly announced, such as new gas fields discovered in Saudi Arabia in 2022.
The IEA updated its net-zero scenario in 2023 to reflect the continued expansion of fossil-fuel projects since its previous report. It stated that:
“No new long lead time conventional oil and gas projects need to be approved for development.”
It added that falling demand for fossil fuels “may also mean that a number of high cost projects come to an end before they reach the end of their technical lifetimes”, again if the world gets onto a 1.5C pathway.
To reflect the IEA’s new language around avoiding “long lead time” and “conventional” projects, GEM excludes expansions of existing projects and “unconventional” sites from its analysis. The report notes that including them would roughly quadruple the size of the reserves that reached a FID in 2022-23.
Many oil companies have made it clear that they do not intend to wind down their fossil-fuel operations in the near future.
This is true even for those that have made commitments to climate action, such as Shell and TotalEnergies. (Some oil majors have also watered down their pledges in recent months.)
As the chart below shows, many of the companies with the largest share of new oil and gas schemes have also announced net-zero targets.
The top rankings are dominated by publicly traded oil majors, such as ExxonMobil, and national companies, such as the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) – which is led by COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber. Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, is missing from the GEM tracker, likely due to the lack of data from Saudi Arabia.
The emissions that could result from new gas fields run by the state-owned National Iranian Oil Company alone amount to 1,700MtCO2, according to Carbon Brief analysis. This is higher than the annual carbon footprint of Brazil.
Meanwhile, oil and gas in new projects being developed by TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil could generate roughly 1,000MtCO2 – equivalent to Japan’s annual total – for each company.
At the recent CERAWeek industry conference, many oil and gas industry leaders argued against a transition to cleaner forms of energy. For example, Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser told attendees: “We should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas.”
As companies continue searching for more oil and gas, executives have consistently emphasised that demand for fossil fuels, rather than production, is the problem.
Most recently, in an interview with Fortune, ExxonMobil chief executive Darren Woods placed the blame on the public, who he said “aren’t willing to spend the money” on low-carbon alternatives.
New nations, mainly in the global south, are opening up as “global hotspots” for oil and gas projects, according to GEM.
Notably, Guyana is set to have the highest oil production growth through to 2035. Over the past two years, it has already been the site of more new oil and gas discoveries than any other country. Namibia has also opened up as a major new frontier in fossil-fuel extraction.
The chart below shows how nations that have recently been targeted for oil and gas exploration, now make up a large portion of new discoveries and developments.
The expansion of oil and gas production in the global south is a highly politicised topic.
Many African leaders, in particular, argue that their countries are entitled to exploit their natural resources in order to bring benefits to their people, as global-north countries have done. At COP28, African Group chair Collins Nzovu stated that oil and gas were “crucial for Africa’s development”.
(It is worth noting that, according to GEM’s analysis, companies based in the global north such as ExxonMobil, Hess Corporation and TotalEnergies own most of the reserves in the new global-south projects.)
Meanwhile, wealthy oil producers such as the US, Norway and the UAE justify their continued fossil-fuel extraction by saying their production emissions are relatively low. Others, such as the UK, argue that they need to exploit domestic reserves to preserve their energy security.
Even in a 1.5C scenario, the IEA still includes a significantly reduced amount of oil and gas use in 2050. Most of it goes towards making petrochemicals and producing hydrogen fuel.
However, in last year’s report on the position of the oil and gas industry in the net-zero transition, the agency also emphasises that this does not mean everyone can continue producing.
“Many producers say they will be the ones to keep producing throughout transitions and beyond. They cannot all be right,” it concludes.
COAL: New Hampshire’s Granite Shore Power will shut down its last coal-fired power plants in 2025 and 2028, replacing them with solar, battery storage, and other clean energy and marking the end of coal in New England. (New Hampshire Bulletin)
OFFSHORE WIND:
UTILITIES: Hundreds of Massachusetts residents say they’ve unknowingly or mistakenly signed up to receive power from a competitive energy supplier after being promised rate savings, only to receive shockingly high bills months later. (Boston Globe/WBUR)
TRANSPORTATION: The New York City MTA board grants final approval to a congestion pricing plan aimed at curbing emissions and encouraging public transit use. (Gothamist)
SOLAR:
BIOFUEL: A $91 million contract to supply New York City’s heavy-duty vehicles with renewable diesel went to a company whose CEO has donated to the mayor’s campaign, despite never having secured more than a $7 million contract before, and other questionable business practices. (The City)
BUILDINGS: Amherst, Massachusetts, breaks ground on a new elementary school that will be equipped with heat pumps, solar panels and efficiency measures, making it the town’s first net-zero building. (Amherst Indy)
COMMENTARY: A Maine bill would give regulators the power to make sure utility profits line up with their performance and alignment with renewable power goals, a clean energy advocate writes. (National Resources Council of Maine)
POLITICS: The Biden administration’s pattern of proposing tougher climate and emissions rules than it ends up implementing are a side effect of President Biden’s re-election bid, observers say. (E&E News)
OIL & GAS:
SOLAR: Solar generation is expected to briefly plunge in parts of the country during next month’s solar eclipse, but grid operators and electric utilities say they’re prepared with alternate energy sources to keep power flowing. (New York Times)
COAL: New Hampshire’s Granite Shore Power will shut down its last coal-fired power plants in 2025 and 2028, replacing them with solar, battery storage, and other clean energy and marking the end of coal in New England. (New Hampshire Bulletin)
OFFSHORE WIND: Four developers bid to build offshore wind projects off the Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island coasts, including two bids from Avangrid and SouthCoast Wind that are essentially rebids of recently retracted projects. (CT Mirror, Rhode Island Current)
NUCLEAR:
EMISSIONS: The U.S. EPA begins taking public comments on how it should regulate carbon emissions from existing gas plants and best practices for carbon capture technology. (E&E News, subscription)
TRANSPORTATION: California environmental justice advocates push back on proposed changes to the state’s low carbon fuel standard, saying it might lead to higher gas prices that disproportionately burden low-income communities. (Inside Climate News)
PIPELINES:
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: Ford plans to cut roughly two-thirds of its hourly workers at a Michigan plant building its electric F-150 as volume expectations drop. (Detroit Free Press)
OIL & GAS: The federal Bureau of Land Management finalizes its rule aimed at reducing methane emissions from oil and gas facilities on public and tribal lands by requiring operators to limit flaring and venting and detect and repair leaks. (Washington Post)
ALSO: Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon criticizes the U.S. EPA’s proposal to establish a fee on methane emissions from oil and gas facilities, saying it would economically harm the state. (Buckrail)
UTILITIES: California regulators propose a flat monthly utility fee for all electricity bills in an effort to reduce rates for low-income residents and to encourage electrification. (E&E News, subscription)
SOLAR:
TRANSPORTATION: California environmental justice advocates push back on proposed changes to the state’s low carbon fuel standard, saying it might lead to higher gas prices that disproportionately burden low-income communities. (Inside Climate News)
NUCLEAR: Washington state environmentalists and tribal leaders urge Gov. Jay Inslee to veto a budget earmark allocating $25 million to expedite advanced nuclear reactor deployment, saying the funds should go toward clean energy development. (Washington State Standard)
ELECTRIC VEHICLES:
CLIMATE: Climate advocates protest Amazon’s plans to connect its Oregon data centers to a natural gas pipeline slated for expansion, saying the use of fossil fuels adds to the company’s “carbon problems.” (Common Dreams)
ENERGY STORAGE: The first phase of a 680 MW battery energy storage facility in southern California is expected to go online this summer. (Patch)
HYDROPOWER: Federal lawmakers from Western states introduce legislation that would allocate $45 million to repair and upgrade Hoover Dam and its hydropower plant in Nevada. (Las Vegas Review-Journal)
MINING: Protesters who disrupted work at the Thacker Pass lithium mine in Nevada claim their action was necessary to save lives as they’re sued by the project’s developer. (KOLO)
TRANSITION:
OFFSHORE WIND: The Biden administration approves the 924 MW Sunrise wind project, slated to be built off Long Island, marking the administration’s seventh major wind project approval. (Associated Press)
ALSO:
UTILITIES: A New York state audit finds PSEG Long Island is inadequately managing the Long Island Power Authority, and that its deficient renewable energy and efficiency programs jeopardize its ability to meet state clean energy goals. (Newsday)
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: New Jersey’s governor signs into law a new $250 annual registration fee for electric vehicles to patch a projected downturn in gas tax revenues. (New Jersey Monitor)
GRID:
STORAGE: Maine is on track to meet its goal of installing 300 MW of energy storage capacity by 2025, according to a report from state regulators. (Utility Dive)
COAL: The bridge collapse in Baltimore is blocking access to the U.S.’s second-largest port for coal exports and will likely disrupt the industry for at least six weeks. (E&E News)
SOLAR: A New York state senator introduces a bill that would increase the tax credit for homeowners to install rooftop solar to $10,000. (Spectrum News)
CLIMATE: Massachusetts’ climate chief discusses the state’s progress on installing heat pumps, and how rising temperatures are already affecting farming and other industries. (Berkshire Eagle)
LITHIUM: A Maine scientist argues a proposed rule change is adequate to allow lithium mining in the state, but environmental and health groups argue more safety considerations are needed. (Maine Morning Star)
HYDROPOWER: A western New York board game maker is awarded low-cost hydropower to support a $6.5 million expansion. (Buffalo News)
COMMENTARY:
SOLAR: West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice vetoes a bill that would have extended electric utilities’ ability to buy or build solar projects beyond 2025, calling the legislation a threat to the state’s coal industry. (Dominion Post)
ALSO:
STORAGE: A company seeking to build pumped-hydro energy storage on old coal mining sites received $81 million in federal funding last week to develop a project in Kentucky that could deliver 287 MW of power for up to 8 hours. (Canary Media)
OFFSHORE WIND: A coalition led by a climate-denial think tank files a lawsuit seeking to stop construction of a Virginia offshore wind project, under the guise of protecting endangered whales. (Public Radio East)
OIL & GAS:
PIPELINES: Virginia regulators fine the Mountain Valley Pipeline $34,000 for another round of environmental violations, including damaging a wetland and dumping blast debris into a stream. (Roanoke Times)
ELECTRIC VEHICLES:
NUCLEAR: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott wants to explore the potential of small nuclear reactors to provide on-demand power to the state’s grid. (Texas Tribune)
COAL:
COMMENTARY: A former South Carolina utility regulator says he resigned this month to speak out about pending legislation that would drastically change oversight of investor-owned utilities by green-lighting a proposed natural gas plant despite many unanswered questions. (Post and Courier)
PIPELINES: South Dakota ethanol companies offered meals, swag, and other perks to busloads of people to influence lawmakers on carbon pipeline legislation last month, raising legal and ethical questions from critics. (Argus Leader)
ALSO:
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: Purdue University partners with an Indiana agency and the private sector to build the country’s first highway segment that could wirelessly charge electric vehicles as they travel. (Indianapolis Star)
BATTERIES:
SOLAR:
UTILITIES: AEP Ohio residential customers will pay about $10 more per month in higher transmission fees while those same rates for businesses and large industrial users will go down. (Columbus Dispatch)
NUCLEAR: Momentum is building behind nuclear energy in Michigan as lawmakers seek to support the industry, regulators study the benefits and risks, and top state and federal officials plan to reopen a shuttered plant. (Michigan Advance)
GRID:
COMMENTARY: A University of Kansas doctoral student says boosting energy efficiency in rental housing would deliver environmental, economic and social benefits. (Kansas Reflector)
When I think about manufacturing and heavy industry, macaroni doesn’t usually come to mind.
But just like cement producers and glass manufacturers, factories that make Ben & Jerry’s ice cream, Kraft mac and cheese and other name-brand foods have a big carbon footprint. And that’s why they’re among manufacturers set to split $6.3 billion of newly awarded federal funding for 33 emissions-reducing projects.
Ten Kraft Heinz factories will use their funding to decarbonize their process heat systems using electric heat pumps and boilers, and install solar panels, biogas boilers, and energy storage to power it. A paper facility will implement a new technology that can improve the energy efficiency of the papermaking process. And iron and steel facilities will integrate hydrogen into their projects, among other projects at chemical, metal, and concrete producers.
Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the projects are all meant to develop “replicable” and “scalable” technology that can eventually be implemented at manufacturing facilities around the world.
Also in federal clean energy funding this week: $475 million will go toward building solar and energy storage systems at former Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia coal mines, as well as gold and copper mines in other states.
— Kathryn Krawczyk
🚦 Yellow light for clean cars: The U.S. EPA proposes a slower phase-in of strict tailpipe pollution limits than it suggested last year, likely driving more hybrid vehicle sales but still setting up electric vehicles to make up the majority of car sales by 2032. (Politico, E&E News)
⚡️ Unlocking geothermal’s potential: Geothermal power could help plug solar and wind power’s intermittency gaps, but experts say first scientists and developers need to unlock next-generation technologies that make it easier and cheaper to harness the earth’s heat. (Canary Media)
🔥 Another gas health impact: Flaring and venting of natural gas in the U.S. causes about two premature deaths each day and costs the economy about $7.4 billion annually in lost work time and other health effects, a peer-reviewed study finds. (Inside Climate News)
🔌 A crack in the code: The International Code Council omits stronger pro-electrification measures from its building code guidelines, rejecting its own expert recommendations and siding with gas utility and furnace manufacturing trade groups. (HuffPost)
🏭 Clean energy’s foil: The U.S. aluminum industry is declining even as demand for the material grows, posing a challenge for domestic production of solar panels, wind turbines and other clean energy components. (Canary Media)
🏠 Not easy being green: Two climate reporters share how they moved their house off natural gas, installing an electric heat pump, water heater and appliances. (Grist)
🌎 Chamber of climate inaction: Microsoft, Pfizer and more of the country’s biggest companies are quietly opposing the U.S. Chamber of Commerce as it fights federal climate action and environmental disclosure rules. (E&E News)
To make south Louisiana’s oil and gas infrastructure more resilient to extreme weather, Entergy Louisiana wants to build a $441 million floating natural gas power plant as the land around it continues to vanish from a combination of sinking and sea-level rise.
A top Louisiana utility consumer advocate noted the “loop of irony” of adding even more greenhouse gasses to a region already suffering massive land loss because of climate change.
Entergy says the plant is necessary because in 2020, Hurricane Zeta took out a major transmission line serving the area, according to its filing with the Louisiana Public Service Commission. The company says the plant would be cheaper than building a new transmission line through wetlands and marshes, and it would not be “prudent or economic” to buy power on the open market. The company did not provide the cost to replace its downed transmission line.
Entergy Louisiana says its proposed 112-megawatt Bayou Power Station could disconnect from the grid and use the plant’s power to provide electricity to 7,000 residential, industrial and commercial including Port Fourchon, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port and residents in Golden Meadow, Leeville and Grand Isle. The power station would have black-start capability — or the ability to rapidly start up and ramp down without being connected to other parts of the energy grid.
“This Project will directly address critical oil and gas customers in the system at Port Fourchon,” Entergy’s filing to the PSC. “The interconnection of the Project will add a resilient power source to the (Entergy Louisiana) grid and enable storm restoration options, following a significant weather event.”
The promises being made mirror those its sister company, Entergy New Orleans, used to convince the New Orleans City Council to approve a 128-MW natural gas plant in eastern New Orleans that came online in 2020. Entergy New Orleans said the $210 million plant would come online quickly after a storm to provide the city with power.
But that didn’t happen. After Hurricane Ida struck in August 2021, the entire city went dark, and it took almost three days for the New Orleans gas plant to become operational. The utility said using the plant’s quick-start capability wasn’t the safest way to restore power to the city.
“And so the question now is why should the Louisiana Public Service Commission approve (Bayou Power Station) seeing what happened only a handful of years ago,” asked Logan Atkinson Burke, executive director of the Alliance for Affordable Energy.
Burke noted the Bayou Power Station would cost twice as much as the New Orleans plant and produce less electricity.
The power generation portion of the project is estimated at $374.3 million, or roughly $3,318 per kilowatt, an amount twice as much as most other power generation costs, according to the federal Energy Information Administration. If the Public Service Commission approves the plant, the costs would trickle down to all of Entergy Louisiana’s 1.1 million customers through increased rates and charges.
In addition to approval of the plant within 120 days, Entergy has asked the PSC for permission to bypass the competitive bid process and hand the contract to its preselected contractor, Grand Isle Shipyards.
“An RFP (request for proposals) wouldn’t have produced a more qualified vendor at a better cost,” said David Freese, a spokesman for Entergy Louisiana. The plant would be built at the company’s shipyard and moved to Leeville for installation.
Before it narrowed its options, Entergy also considered combined-cycle gas turbines, solar and simple-cycle combustion turbines, Freese said. Offshore wind was not considered because of the costs of building a transmission line to the offshore turbines, the intermittent nature of wind and the potential impact of hurricanes on those turbines, he said.
Coastal researcher Alex Kolker, an associate professor at the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium who specializes in oceanography, geology and climate science, said the region is prone to storms and extreme weather that is being made more intense by climate change.
Utility consumer advocate Burke said it appears the company is doubling down on its reliance on fossil fuels, ignoring the inherent climate risks.
“It’s very clear that we are in a in a loop of irony at this point where the hotter it gets, the more water there is, and the less land there is as a result of oil and gas extraction, all while Louisiana is so interconnected to those international oil and gas systems,” Burke said. “So we ‘need’ to build something that is incredibly vulnerable in a place that is vulnerable because of oil and gas.”
Floodlight is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates the powerful interests stalling climate action.
CLIMATE: Bucks County, Pennsylvania, sues top fossil fuel producers, alleging they’ve known for decades that their products were driving climate change. (NBC Philadelphia)
UTILITIES:
OFFSHORE WIND:
LITHIUM: Advocates want to see more environmental considerations in Maine’s proposed rules that would allow mining in a recently discovered lithium deposit. (Portland Press Herald)
ELECTRIC VEHICLES:
CLEAN ENERGY:
ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE: Maryland environmental justice communities say a proposed state bill doesn’t cover some of the biggest sources of air pollution affecting their neighborhoods. (Baltimore Sun)
FOSSIL FUELS: Small oil and gas drillers say Pennsylvania’s proposed hike in bond costs, meant to ensure companies don’t abandon wells, could drive them out of business. (Tribune-Democrat)
SOLAR:
EMISSIONS: An Israeli company looks to build a trash-to-plastic plant in Massachusetts, which it says would help reduce landfill methane emissions. (Boston Globe)
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