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Cheese. Beer. Clothes. Paper. Manufacturers across the country rely on combustion boilers to produce the heat required for making a range of products. But by burning coal, oil, gas, and other fuels to do so, that equipment spews health-harming and planet-warming pollution into the skies.
A different technology would allow communities to breathe easier. Electric heat pumps, which can provide industrial heat without emissions, are spreading but remain underutilized. They only supply about 5% of global industrial heat.
Now, a new study quantifies what Americans stand to gain from manufacturers switching to heat pumps. A gradual transition would not only decarbonize heating but deliver a staggering $1.1 trillion in public health benefits and avoid 77,200 pollution-inflicted deaths from 2030 to 2050, according to a report released Thursday by the nonprofit American Lung Association.
It’s a move “that’s going to save lives, reduce health emergencies, cut asthma attacks, [and] keep kids healthy enough to be in school rather than missing school days,” said Will Barrett, an assistant vice president at the American Lung Association who works on national clean air policy.
Nearly half of the U.S. population lives in places with very unhealthy levels of ozone or particle pollution, two of the most common and dangerous air pollutants. Antiquated boilers are an oft-overlooked part of the problem.
Like other fossil-fuel-burning machines, such as home appliances and cars, industrial combustion boilers release nitrogen oxides, fine particulate matter, and sulfur dioxide into the air. These toxic byproducts can harm children and adults in severe ways, such as asthma attacks, preterm births, heart attacks, strokes, and an impaired ability to think.
To quantify the benefits of switching to industrial heat pumps, the authors created an inventory of the industrial boilers across the U.S. based on publicly available data. They found that about 33,500 boilers scattered around the nation operate at the low and medium temperatures — i.e., less than 200 degrees Celsius — that make them the best candidates for heat pumps to replace. (For now, heat pumps are most feasible for lower temperatures, though Barrett noted research-and-development efforts will bring down the costs for higher-temperature changeouts over time.)
The team then estimated how much pollution would be avoided by gradually swapping these boilers out for electric heat pumps over the next 15 years, with lower temperatures addressed soonest. By leveraging the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s health impacts tool, the team found that switching to heat pumps would not only save thousands of lives but also prevent 33 million asthma attacks, 204,000 asthma cases, 13 million lost school days, and 3.4 million lost work days.
States in which more people live close to industrial pollution sources would experience the greatest boost to public health and productivity, according to the team’s analysis. The three with the biggest estimated health benefits are Florida, which would save $107 billion over the study period, Pennsylvania ($82 billion), and North Carolina ($68 billion). Twenty-three others would save at least $25 billion each.
The transition would also reduce carbon emissions by 1.6 billion metric tons through 2050. That translates to $351 billion in avoided societal costs due to a destabilized climate — which is already being felt in record-breaking heat waves and deadlier floods. Sources of industrial heat, including boilers, account for 9% of all U.S. greenhouse gas pollution, according to the Department of Energy.
The findings come as the Trump administration aggressively rolls back public health protections, emissions regulations, and support for industrial decarbonization projects, having cancelled $3.7 billion in funding in May.
To push industries to switch to heat pumps, the report recommends state and local policymakers offer manufacturers incentives to electrify their heating, launch education campaigns aimed at communities and companies, and require the adoption of nonpolluting equipment. California has taken the lead; its South Coast Air Quality Management District passed a first-in-the-nation measure last year to gradually phase out combustion boilers and process heaters starting in 2026.
“It’s a new paradigm when you’re operating and fulfilling all the needs of these manufacturing heat processes without causing health-harming pollution,” Barrett said.
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