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The Problem

Global Warming

Remaining Carbon Budget

The Carbon Clock estimate of the remaining CO2 emissions budget to limit global warming, previously displayed here, is currently under review and will be replaced by a version updated with the 2025 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) data, once it becomes available.

Realtime countdown of the remaining carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions budget until global warming reaches a maximum of 1.5°C / 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), evaluates scientific data related to climate change including estimates of the remaining amount of CO2 that can be released into the atmosphere to limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5°C / 2°C.  This data was last updated in summer 2021, and is the basis of the MCC Carbon Clock.

IPCC bases the concept of a carbon budget on a nearly linear relationship between the cumulative emissions and the temperature rise.  There is, however, a lag between the concentration of emissions in the atmosphere and their impact on temperature to be taken into account.  With the starting point of annual emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuels, industrial processes and land-use change estimated to be 42.2 gigatonnes per year [or 1,337 tonnes per second], the 1.5°C / 2°C budgets would be expected to be exhausted in approximately 5 and 23 years from August 2024, respectively.

Am I also contributing?

Are we thinking about the emission of greenhouse gasses such as methane and carbon when we do day to day activities like: driving a car, using energy to cook or heating our houses? Probably not. But by doing this we are making our small but constant contribution to the problem of Global Warming. We see from worsening weather disasters around the world that this returns as a boomerang back to our houses and families.

>80%

of all natural disasters were related to climate change

24.29%

USA share of global world cumulative CO₂ emission

100 million

people can be pushed into poverty by 2030 because of climate change impact

We agree this is really happening!

The overall trend in global average temperature indicates that warming is occurring in an increasing number of regions. Future Earth warming depends on our greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades.

At present, approximately 11 billion metric tons of carbon are released into the atmosphere each year. As a result, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is on the rise every year, as it surpasses the natural capacity for removal.

10

warmest years on historical record have occurred since 2010

>2°F

is the total increase in the Earth's temperature since 1880

>2x

warming rate since 1981

Understanding the ultimate consequences of current trends

Observations from both satellites and the Earth’s surface are indisputable — the planet has warmed rapidly over the past 44 years. As far back as 1850, data from weather stations all over the globe make clear the Earth’s average temperature has been rising.

In recent days, as the Earth has reached its highest average temperatures in recorded history, warmer than any time in the last 125,000 years. Paleoclimatologists, who study the Earth’s climate history, are confident that the current decade is warmer than any period since before the last ice age, about 125,000 years ago.

The Solution Has Several Parts

What can be done to stop it?

Increase the usage of Hydrogen

Clean hydrogen has 3 main uses: energy storage, load balancing, and as feedstock/fuel. Used in all sectors, including steel, chemical, oil refining & heavy transport. Actions to accelerate decarbonization & increase clean hydrogen use include:

  • Invest in clean hydrogen supply;
  • Increase hydrogen demand as fuel/feedstock;
  • Use hydrogen for clean high-temperature heat;
  • Use hydrogen as low-carbon feedstock for ammonia/fertilizer;
  • Use hydrogen as clean fuel for heavy transport;
  • Create policies incentivizing electric power decarbonization;
  • Utilize hydrogen as a means for storing energy over extended periods;
  • Improve electrolyser technology & readiness in heavy industry/liquid transport fuels;
  • Increase use of Methane Pyrolysis & Water Electrolysis for clean hydrogen production;
  • Increase use of wind and solar in electricity production systems.

Increase the usage of Electricity

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving carbon neutrality requires widespread renewable energy and a huge increase in vehicles, products, and processes powered by electricity.

Electricity generated from increasingly renewable energy sources is the right way to create a clean energy system. Switching from direct use of fossil fuels to electricity improves air quality by reducing emissions of local pollutants.In order to increase the use of electricity, we can do the following:

  • Use more electric cars. Compared to traditional combustion engine vehicles, electric cars show a 3-5 times increase in energy efficiency;
  • Increase your electricity consumption within your household;
  • Upgrade your home with smart technology. Electrical appliances can be digitized with smart technology;
  • Use electric heat pump heating. Heat pumps use 4 times less energy than oil or gas boilers;
  • Electrify industrial processes in order to reduce energy intensity.

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What is hydrogen?

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Lightest and most abundant

As the foremost element in the periodic table, hydrogen holds a unique position in the universe, given its status as the lightest and one of the most ancient and abundant chemical elements.

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Never alone

Hydrogen, in its pure form, needs to be extracted since it is usually present in more intricate molecules, such as water or hydrocarbons, on Earth.

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Fuel of stars

Hydrogen powers stars through nuclear fusion. This creates energy and all the other chemicals elements which are found on Earth.

Biggest Human Usages

Ammonia Production

Hydrogen is an essential part for manufacturing Ammoniam Nitrate fertilizers. Half of the world's food is grown using hydrogen-based ammonia fertilizer.

Methanol Production

Hydrogen is used in the production of methanol, where hydrogen is reacted with carbon monoxide to produce chemical feedstocks.

Electricity generation

Hydrogen fuel cells make electricity from combining hydrogen and oxygen. Power plants are showing increased interest in using hydrogen, and gas turbines can convert from natural gas to hydrogen combustion.

Vehicles fuel

Hydrogen is an alternative vehicle fuel. It allows us to power fuel cells in zero-emission electric drive vehicles.

Concrete Production

Hydrogen heat is used in order to reduce emissions in the manufacturing process.

Steelmaking

Steelmaking is an industry that is beginning to successfully use hydrogen in two ways to eliminate almost all greenhouse emissions from the steelmaking process.  First for Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) replacing coke (from coal) with hydrogen to remove oxygen from iron ore. Second for heat to melt the iron ore into DRI and then into low carbon steel.

Space exploration

Liquid hydrogen has been used by NASA as a rocket fuel since the 1950s.

Chemical Industry

Hydrogen is used in production of explosives, fertilizers, and other chemicals; to convert heavier hydrocarbons to lightweight hydrocarbons to produce many value-added chemicals; to hydrogenate organic compounds; and to remove impurities like sulfur, halides, oxygen, metals, and/or nitrogen. It's also in household cleaners like ammonium hydroxide.

Pharmaceutical Industry

Hydrogen is used to make vitamins and other pharmaceutical products.

Glass and Ceramics

In the production of float glass, hydrogen is needed to provide heat and to prevent the large tin bath from oxidizing.

Food and Beverages

It is used to hydrogenate unsaturated fatty acids in animal and vegetable oils, to obtain solid fats for margarine and other food products.

Oil Refining

Using clean hydrogen makes it possible to reduce emissions while "cracking" heavier petroleum into lightweight hydrocarbons to produce many value-added chemicals.

Read More

Goals

The World needs MORE hydrogen, to move toward Turquoise and Green hydrogen, and away from Grey hydrogen

goals diagram

Where We are Now

  • The temperature trend shows the increase can reach 5.9°F (3.28°C) by 2050
  • High CO2 emissions (7-8 kg CO2 /kg H2)
  • Only 2% produced with carbon capture (2Mt)
  • Worldwide 98% Hydrogen production (94 Mt) without carbon capture emits CO2(900 Mt)
  • 62% from methane without carbon capture
  • Fossil Fuel electricity generation pollutes the environment
  • Fossil Fuel provides 33-35% efficiency
diagram

What We Want to Achieve

By 2030

  • 25% Produced(24Mt) with carbon capture
  • Stop more climate change limiting warming to 2.4°F (1.3°C) by 2050
  • Hydrogen for low-carbon industrial heat
  • 100% Hydrogen as a sustainable industrial feedstock

Statistics Source: IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2022

Most Common Hydrogen Sources

These methods now produce 85% of the world's Greenhouse Gas carbon emissions

grey hydrogen method

SMR (Steam Methane Reforming) + WGS (Water Gas Shift)

SMR is a way of producing syngas (Hydrogen and Carbon monoxide) by mixing hydrocarbons (like natural gas) with water. This mixture goes into a special container called a reformer vessel where a high-pressure mixture of steam and methane comes into contact with a nickel catalyst. As a result of the reaction, hydrogen and carbon monoxide are produced.

To make more hydrogen, carbon monoxide from the first reaction is mixed with water through the WGS reaction. As a result, we receive more hydrogen and a gas called carbon dioxide. For each unit of hydrogen produced there are 6 units of carbon dioxide produced and in almost all cases released into the atmosphere.  Carbon dioxide is a harmful gas causing climate change.

$863 ($0.86 per kilogram of Hydrogen)

(Electricity = $474 + Methane $383 + Water $6 US EIA May 2024*)

SMR + WGS with Carbon Capture

The SMR method involves combining natural gas with high-temperature steam and a catalyst to generate a blend of hydrogen and carbon monoxide. Then, more water is added to the mixture to make more hydrogen and a gas called carbon dioxide.

For each unit of hydrogen produced there are 6 units of carbon dioxide produced. In a few experimental trials, to help the environment, the carbon dioxide is captured and stored underground using a special technology called CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage). This leaves almost pure hydrogen.

One of the main problems with carbon capture and storage is that without careful management of storage, the CO2 can flow from these underground reservoirs into the surrounding air and contribute to climate change, or spoil the nearby water supply. Another is the risk of creating earthquake tremors caused by the storage increasing underground pressure, known as human caused seismicity.

$1,253 ($1.25 per kilogram of Hydrogen)

(Electricity $474 + Methane $505 + Water $4 US + CCS $270 EIA May 2024*)

blue hydrogen

Newer, Clean Hydrogen Sources

Turquoise Hydrogen

Methane Pyrolysis

This technology based on natural gas emits no greenhouse gases as it does not produce CO2. Methane Pyrolysis refers to a method of generating hydrogen by breaking down methane into its basic components, namely hydrogen and solid carbon.

Oxygen is not involved at all within this process (no CO or CO2 is produced). Thus, for the production of hydrogen gas there is no need for an additional of CO or for CO2 separation.

$1,199 ($1.20 per kilogram of Hydrogen)

(Electricity $433 +Methane $766 EIA May 2024*)

More About Turquoise Hydrogen
green-method

Electrolysis

The concept of Green Hydrogen involves generating hydrogen from renewable energy sources by means of electrolysis, a process that splits water into its fundamental constituents, hydrogen and oxygen, using an electric current. This process can be powered by a range of renewable energy sources, such as solar energy, wind power, and hydropower.

The electricity used in the electrolysis process is derived exclusively from renewable sources, ensuring a sustainable and environmentally-friendly production of hydrogen. It generates zero carbon dioxide emissions and, as a result, prevents global warming.

$3,289 ($3.29 per kilogram of Hydrogen)

(Electricity $3,278 + water $11 US EIA May 2024*)

More About Green Hydrogen

Natural Hydrogen

(Emerging New Source)

Natural geologic hydrogen refers to hydrogen gas that is naturally present within the Earth's subsurface.

Known as "White" hydrogen, it can be generated through various geological processes. The study of geologic hydrogen and its potential as an energy resource is an active area of research, as it holds promise for renewable energy applications, particularly in the context of hydrogen fuel cells and clean energy production.

It's important to note that the creation of geologic hydrogen is generally a slow and long-term process, occurring over geological timescales. This is because the other methods are human production technology methods and this is creation by a natural phenomena. The availability and abundance of geologic hydrogen can vary significantly depending on the specific geological setting and the interplay of various factors such as rock composition, temperature, pressure, and the presence of suitable reactants.

Here are some of the main sources and mechanisms of geologic
hydrogen generation:

01

Serpentinization

Serpentinization is a chemical reaction that occurs when water interacts with certain types of rocks, particularly ultramafic rocks rich in minerals such as olivine and pyroxene. This process results in the formation of serpentine minerals and produces hydrogen gas as a byproduct. Serpentinization typically takes place in environments such as hydrothermal systems, oceanic crust, and certain tectonic settings.

02

Radiolysis

In regions with high concentrations of radioactive elements, such as uranium and thorium, the decay of these elements releases radiation. This radiation can interact with surrounding water or other fluids, splitting the water molecules and generating hydrogen gas through a process called radiolysis. This mechanism is believed to contribute to the production of hydrogen in certain deep geological settings, such as deep groundwater systems and radioactive mineral deposits.

03

Geothermal activity

Geothermal systems, which involve the circulation of hot water or steam through fractured rocks, can generate hydrogen gas as a result of various processes. High-temperature hydrothermal systems can cause the thermal decomposition of hydrocarbons, releasing hydrogen gas. Additionally, the interaction between water and hot rocks in geothermal reservoirs can lead to the production of hydrogen through serpentinization or other geochemical reactions.

04

Abiotic methane cracking

Abiotic methane refers to methane gas that is not directly derived from biological sources, such as microbial activity. In certain geological environments, abiotic methane can be generated through processes like thermal decomposition of organic matter or reactions between carbon dioxide and hydrogen. This methane can subsequently undergo thermal or catalytic cracking, producing hydrogen gas.

Success Stories

Steps Taken by Different Countries to Move Forward to Net Zero Emissions

96

£4 billion

100 MW+

1st place

green hydrogen plants are owned by Australia. It possesses the highest count of establishments globally. Australia is expected to have the lowest costs of green hydrogen production by 2050 due to an abundance of solar and wind resources.

was committed by the UK to hydrogen technology and production facilities by 2030 to cultivate a hydrogen economy and create 9,000 jobs.

green hydrogen production sites are being developed by Canadian company First Hydrogen in Quebec and Manitoba. These plans are being developed in conjunction with Canadian and North American automotive strategies.

in the list of largest hydropower producers in the world belongs to China. It is followed by Brazil, USA and Canada.

By 2047

In 2017

200,000

110 countries

green hydrogen will help India make a quantum leap toward energy independence. The country’s National Hydrogen Mission was launched in 2021.

Japan became the first country to formulate a national hydrogen strategy as part of its ambition to become the world's first "hydrogen society" by deploying this fuel in all sectors.

fuel-cell electric vehicles production by 2025 is the goal stated by South Korea. In 2021, South Korea also approved the Hydrogen Power Economic Development and Safety Control Law, the first in the world to promote hydrogen vehicles, charging stations, and fuel cells.

have legally committed to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

Conclusion

The World needs MORE hydrogen

SMR + WGS

SMR + WGS

Keep current hydrogen production methods BUT

+

Clean Hydrogen Production Methods

Clean Hydrogen Production Methods

make additional steps to broaden them with cleaner production methods

=

More Hydrogen

more hydrogen

And as a result the world will get more vital hydrogen and become one step closer to net zero emission

Сurrent Situation

The market is dominated by grey hydrogen produced from natural gas through a fossil fuel-powered SMR process. Every year, the production of grey hydrogen amounts to approximately 70 to 80 million tons, and it is primarily used in industrial chemistry. More than 80% is used for the synthesis of ammonia and its derivatives (fertilizer for agriculture, 50 perecent of food worldwide) or for oil refining operations. Unfortunately, for every 1 kg of grey hydrogen, almost 6-8 kg of carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere.

More than 95% of the world's hydrogen production is based on fossil fuels with greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, to achieve a more stable future and promote the transition of pure energy, the global goal is to reduce the use of other “colors” of hydrogen and focus on the production of a clean product, such as green or turquoise hydrogen. Reaching the zero carbon footprint will require a gradual transition from grey to green/turquoise hydrogen in the coming years.

It is possible to produce decarbonized hydrogen. An option is to use another feedstock, namely water, and convert it in large electrolyzers into H2 and oxygen (O2), which are returned to the atmosphere. If the electricity used to power the electrolyzers is 100% renewable energy (photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, etc.), then hydrogen becomes green. Currently, it is about 0.1% of the total production of hydrogen, but it is expected that it will increase since the cost of renewable energy continues to fall.

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What Does the Data Say about Climate Change?

U.S. Additions to Electric Generating Capacity

U.S. additions to electric generation capacity from 2000 to 2025. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that the United States 
is building power plants at a record pace. As indicated on the chart, nearly all new electric generating capacity either already installed or planned 
for 2025 is from clean energy sources, while new power plants coming 
on line 25 years ago, in 2000, were predominantly fueled by natural gas. New wind power plants began to come on line in 2001 and new solar plants, 10 years, later in 2011. Since 2023, the U.S. power industry has built more solar than any other type of power plant. The EIA predicts that clean energy (wind, solar, and battery storage) will deliver 93% of new power-plant capacity in 2025.

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Surface Air Temperature

Global surface air temperature departures between 1940 and 2024 from the average temperature for the period 1991-2020 (averages below the 11-year average are blue and those above are red). The average in October 2024 was +0.80 degrees Celsius above the reference period average, down from +0.85 degrees Celsius above the reference period average in 2023, which was the warmest October on record.

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In a first, a data center is using a big battery to get online faster
Oct 24, 2025
In a first, a data center is using a big battery to get online faster

CEOs of artificial-intelligence companies want to spend hundreds of billions of dollars building their energy-gobbling data centers, but that can’t happen without the necessary electricity supply. And they want to move way faster than electric utilities are used to.

One idea gaining traction is to allow data centers to come online more quickly if they agree to occasionally pull less power from the grid when demand is high, a concept endorsed by none other than Energy Secretary Chris Wright in a rulemaking proposal filed Thursday. The massive computing facilities could accomplish such flexibility with the help of on-site renewables and batteries, but precious few projects using this model have materialized. That’s about to change.

On Wednesday, Aligned Data Centers announced it would pay for a new 31-megawatt/62-megawatt-hour battery alongside a forthcoming data center in the Pacific Northwest. The battery, developed by energy-storage specialist Calibrant Energy in partnership with the local utility, is now entering the construction phase and should be operating sometime next year. The kicker is, this deal will let Aligned get up and running ​“years earlier than would be possible with traditional utility upgrades,” per the companies.

If the plan works, would-be AI leaders will be jumping all over this battery-first strategy. In fact, many already are, they just haven’t publicly acknowledged it yet.

“There’s so much chatter right now about the potential to use energy storage in this manner to facilitate the connection that large power users want from the grid. But there hadn’t really been evidence of that theory being reality,” said Phil Martin, CEO at Calibrant, which is owned by Macquarie Asset Management. ​“It is possible, and it is being done — not as a proof of concept in a lab somewhere, but really a commercial project.”

Harnessing batteries for the race to power AI

Batteries aren’t, at first glance, a tool well matched to the needs of AI computing.

Lithium-ion chemistries have become quite competitive for short-form activities: First, it was managing second-by-second frequency fluctuations on the grid; now, in places like Australia, California, and Texas, batteries are shifting solar generation to compete with gas plants in the evening when demand rises.

Data centers, though, use energy around the clock — not literally at full blast 24/7, but a lot closer to it than current batteries can keep up with. Data-center developers have chased new gas, hydropower, and an exotic array of nuclear power plants in hopes of feeding the beast. But those options will take several years to come online, if they ever get built. The headlong rush into AI demands nearer-term solutions.

As a lot of exceedingly well-funded firms contemplated this conundrum, some thinkers started focusing on grid flexibility as a way to accelerate the computing-infrastructure buildout. Earlier this year, Duke University researcher Tyler Norris made waves in the AI-energy world with research that found today’s grid could handle quite a lot more data centers if the facilities could simply dial back their consumption for a couple hours at a time during moments of maximum demand.

The Aligned battery offers a concrete example of that kind of research. The utility studied just how big the battery would need to be to compensate for challenges imposed on the local grid by the data center. Aligned and Calibrant had their own calculations, Martin said, ​“but the validation of that, and the actual specification of that, came out of the interconnection study done on the utility side.”

Due to the local nature of the power constraint, the battery had to be built close to Aligned’s facility; the company ultimately provided the land to host the grid storage installation. In other cases, where a proposed data center runs up against a system-wide capacity constraint, a battery solution could be further away.

Another glimpse of the battery-enabled future came this summer when Redwood Materials, a richly funded battery-recycling startup, unveiled a new business line that repackages old EV batteries to serve data-center demand. The first installation, at Redwood’s campus near Reno, Nevada, fully powered a very small, modular data center using a solar array and a field of former EV battery packs laid out on the desert floor.

Redwood just got its own vote of confidence in that concept: On Thursday, it raised another $350 million from investors including AI-chip leader Nvidia.

Business model protects other utility customers

Aligned’s commitment to paying for the battery itself could serve as a model of socially responsible AI-infrastructure development.

Some utilities around the country are jumping to build new power plants to support the projected data-center buildout, and charging their regular customers for the investment, hoping the AI titans eventually become paying customers. But this approach risks saddling consumers with unnecessary costs if the AI hubs don’t materialize.

Because Aligned is footing the bill, the utility’s other customers won’t be forced to pay for the data-center firm’s growth ambitions. But, though this one large customer will provide the land and funding, the battery will sit on the utility side of the meter. That means the utility can leverage the tech for other grid uses, like frequency management and capacity, when it’s not maintaining the flow of power to the data center during otherwise scarce hours.

In this case, Martin said, the permitting and buildout could move faster with the battery connecting to the utility grid instead of directly to the data center. In other situations, bigger batteries on the customer side of the meter might make more sense. Calibrant is already working on more and even larger batteries for the AI sector, he added.

“Whereas right now, we think this is unique, I think over a relatively short time horizon it’s going to be much more common,” Martin said. ​“It’ll start to look surprising if we don’t see projects like this at the largest loads as they connect [to the grid].”

A clarification was made on Oct. 25, 2025: This story originally stated that the local utility studied how many times per year the local grid could run out of electricity if the data center got built. The piece has been updated to clarify that the utility studied how big the battery would need to be to compensate for challenges imposed on the local grid by the data center.

The complicated reality behind rising power prices
Oct 24, 2025
The complicated reality behind rising power prices

Energy affordability has become a flash point over the past few months. It’s a key issue in this year’s gubernatorial races. It’s something President Donald Trump has promised to fix by boosting fossil-fuel production. And of course, it’s showing up in the bills that arrive in mailboxes every month.

Three-quarters of Americans count electricity costs as a source of stress in their lives, according to a new Associated Press-NORC survey. But a recent study from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory provides more nuance to the conversation. When adjusted for inflation, 31 continental states actually saw their power prices decline from 2019 to 2024, while the other 17 states experienced increases.

One reason why some states saw prices jump? Utility spending on disaster recovery and preparedness. Take California, where utilities have added billions of dollars in wildfire-recovery costs and mitigation programs to retail electricity prices in recent years, the national lab found. It’s a bracing fact as the planet warms and disasters become more frequent and destructive.

But the report also tempered fears that the growth of data centers and other power-hungry industries will jack up electricity prices. Grid maintenance has been a top driver of increased electricity costs over the last few years, but spreading these expenses among more customers — like data centers and manufacturers — has helped lower retail electricity prices, researchers found. One caveat: That dynamic tends to benefit large, commercial consumers more than residential ones.

The Trump administration has elevated fossil fuels as a solution to rising electricity bills, positing that more coal and gas power can cut prices. But building a new gas-fired plant is increasingly expensive and takes years, and the U.S. is preparing to ship more liquefied natural gas out of the country anyway.

If you look at two rare examples of power utilities reducing their rates, it’s clear that falling back on coal isn’t the answer either. In Oregon, Idaho Power Co. has asked regulators to lower electricity prices by nearly 1%, saying the closure of a coal-fired power unit and demolition of another coal plant have brought down costs. And in Virginia, where a state law is pushing the electricity sector to lower emissions, Appalachian Power cited the addition of renewable power in its request to lower rates. West Virginia is meanwhile pushing to keep its coal plants running — a move that Appalachian Power said would raise prices for its electricity customers in that state.

But putting the national lab’s inflation-adjusted numbers aside, it’s clear that rising utility bills are reaching a fever pitch across the country — and it’s going to take both more clean energy and smarter utility regulation to rein them in.

More big energy stories

Trump sinks a global shipping-decarbonization plan

Until a few weeks ago, the International Maritime Organization was on track to approve a global shipping-decarbonization strategy. That is, until the Trump administration launched a last-minute offensive and got the United Nations body to delay adoption of the plan, Maria Gallucci and Dan McCarthy reported late last week.

The tens of thousands of shipping vessels that travel the oceans are responsible for about 3% of the world’s annual greenhouse gas emissions. But as Maria points out in her follow-up dive into shipping decarbonization, the industry doesn’t currently have much incentive to replace dirty diesel-powered vessels with lower-carbon alternatives.

Some good news, some bad news for U.S. battery startups

The U.S. Department of Energy slashed another wave of federal funding this week, targeting $700 million in grants for battery and other clean manufacturing projects. Nearly half of that funding had been awarded to Ascend Elements, which had already canceled a portion of its planned battery-recycling facility in Kentucky earlier this year. A smaller portion was going to American Battery Technology Co., which said it will carry on with its lithium mine and refinery project in Nevada.

But it wasn’t a bad week for every battery company. Redwood Materials raised $350 million, which it’ll use to expand its unique energy-storage business that packages together used EV batteries into grid-scale resources that can power data centers and other industrial users. And Pila Energy raised $4 million to keep building batteries that provide backup power to large appliances, but are more affordable and portable than whole-home systems like the Tesla Powerwall.

Clean energy news to know this week

Losing the reactor race: China has a clear head start on the U.S. when it comes to nuclear power, as China has figured out how to produce reactors cheaply and quickly, while the U.S.’s last project went billions of dollars over budget. (New York Times)

What whales? The Trump administration has repeatedly blamed offshore wind farms for whale deaths but just canceled funding for research meant to protect the marine mammals in an increasingly busy ocean. (Canary Media)

Drill here, drill there, drill everywhere: The Trump administration opens 1.56 million acres of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge’s coastal plain to new oil and gas leasing, and reportedly plans to open significant swaths of the East and West coasts to offshore drilling as well. (New York Times, Politico)

Testing the grid: Xcel Energy is taking different approaches to building out distributed energy resources depending on the state, installing batteries at local businesses in Minnesota while pursuing a more complicated, legislatively mandated model in Colorado. (Latitude Media)

Battling battery blazes: California passes a new law to strengthen fire-safety standards for grid battery systems after a devastating blaze in Moss Landing earlier this year, though new storage-facility designs have already made similar fires unlikely. (Canary Media)

Flagged and forgotten: The United Nations says governments and oil and gas companies are ignoring nearly 90% of leaks that methane-tracking satellites have detected for them. (Reuters)

A winding road to decarbonization: Rondo Energy’s ​“heat batteries” could be key to decarbonizing heavy industry, but the company’s first industrial-scale test is at a controversial site: a California oil field. (Canary Media)

Chart: Solar is driving renewable energy to new heights around the globe
Oct 24, 2025
Chart: Solar is driving renewable energy to new heights around the globe

If you thought the world built a lot of renewables in the past few years, just wait for the next half of this decade.

Between 2025 and 2030, the world is expected to build nearly 4,600 gigawatts — or 4.6 terawatts, if you please — of clean power, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.

That’s nearly double the amount built over the previous five-year period, which was in turn more than double the amount built across the five years before that. Put differently, the growth has essentially been exponential.

Solar is the driving force behind this expansion, which is key to transitioning the world away from planet-warming fossil fuels. It accounts for more than three-quarters of the expected increase in renewables between 2025 and 2030 — the result, IEA says, of not only low equipment costs but also solid permitting rules and a broad social acceptance of the tech.

This solar boom will be almost equally split between utility-scale installations and distributed projects, meaning panels atop roofs or shade structures in parking lots, for example. Just over 2 TW of large-scale projects will be built compared to 1.5 TW of the smaller, distributed stuff, IEA predicts. The latter category is increasingly popular both in countries with rising electricity rates and in places with unreliable grids, like Pakistan, where residents are taking refuge in the affordable and stable nature of the tech.

China is installing most of the world’s solar, but the technology is a global phenomenon at this point. At least 29 countries now get over 10% of their electricity from the clean energy source, per a separate report released by think tank Ember earlier this month.

Other types of clean energy are set to grow, too, just not at anything close to solar’s scale.

Installations of onshore wind will leap from 505 GW over the previous five-year period to 732 GW between 2025 and 2030. Offshore wind will more than double from 60 GW to 140 GW. Hydropower will rebound modestly from a down couple of years, but still won’t expand at the levels seen in the early to mid-2010s.

Still, renewables are not gaining enough ground to triple clean capacity by the end of this decade compared with 2023 — a goal countries around the world set two years ago at COP28, the annual United Nations climate conference. In just a few weeks, global leaders will reconvene in Brazil for COP30. The IEA figures, while a sure sign of progress, underscore the steep climb ahead.

Admin claims ​‘wind mills’ kill whales but quietly torpedoes the science
Oct 23, 2025
Admin claims ​‘wind mills’ kill whales but quietly torpedoes the science

The Trump administration has repeatedly blamed offshore wind farms for whale deaths, contrary to scientific evidence. Now the administration is quietly abandoning key research programs meant to protect marine mammals living in an increasingly busy ocean.

The New England Aquarium and the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, both in Boston, received word from Interior Department officials last month stating that the department was terminating funds for research to help protect whale populations, effective immediately. The cut halted a 14-year-old whale survey program that the aquarium staff had been carrying out from small airplanes piloted over a swath of ocean where three wind farms — Vineyard Wind 1, Sunrise Wind, and Revolution Wind — are now being built.

Federal officials did not publicly announce the cancellation of funds. In a statement to Canary Media, a spokesperson for the New England Aquarium confirmed the clawback, saying that a letter from Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management dated Sept. 10 had ​“terminated the remaining funds on a multi-year $1,497,453 grant, which totaled $489,068.”

The aquarium is currently hosting the annual meeting of the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium, a network of scientists that study one of the many large whale species that reside in New England’s waters. News of the cut to the aquarium’s research project has dampened the mood there. And rumors have been circulating among attendees about rollbacks to an even larger research program, a public-private partnership led by BOEM that tracks whales near wind farm sites from New England to Virginia.

Government emails obtained by Canary Media indicate that BOEM is indeed shutting down the Partnership for an Offshore Wind Energy Regional Observation Network (POWERON). Launched last year, the program expanded on a $5.8 million effort made possible by the Inflation Reduction Act, deploying a network of underwater listening devices along the East Coast ​“to study the potential impacts of offshore wind facility operations on baleen whales,” referring to the large marine mammals that feed on small krill.

POWERON is a $4.7 million collaboration, still in its infancy, in which wind farm developers pay BOEM to manage the long-term acoustic monitoring for whales that’s required under project permits. One completed wind farm, South Fork Wind, and two in-progress projects, Revolution Wind and Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, currently rely on POWERON to fulfill their whale-protecting obligations.

With POWERON poised to end, wind developers must quickly find third parties to do the work. Otherwise, they risk being out of compliance with multiple U.S. laws, including the Marine Mammal Protection Act and the Endangered Species Act. Dominion Energy, one of the wind developers participating in POWERON, did not respond to a request for comment.

BOEM officials made no public announcement of POWERON’s cancellation and, according to internal emails, encouraged staffers not to put the news in writing.

“It essentially ended,” said a career employee at the Interior Department who was granted anonymity to speak freely for fear of retribution. The staffer described the government’s multimillion-dollar whale-monitoring partnership as ​“a body without a pulse.”

Using whales as a pawn in the war on renewables

The grim news of cuts coincided with the release of some good news. On Tuesday, the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium published a new population estimate for the North Atlantic right whale, an endangered species pushed to the brink of extinction by 18th-century whaling. After dropping to an all-time low of just 358 whales in 2020, the species, scientists believe, has now grown to 384 individuals.

Concern for the whale’s plight has been weaponized in recent years by anti–offshore wind groups, members of Congress, and even President Donald Trump in an effort to undermine the wind farms in federal court as well as in the court of public opinion.

“If you’re into whales … you don’t want windmills,” said Trump, moments after signing an executive order in January that froze federal permitting and new leasing for offshore wind farms.

This view stands in stark contrast with conclusions made by the federal agency tasked with investigating the causes of recent whale groundings.

A statement posted on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s website reads: ​“At this point, there is no scientific evidence that noise resulting from offshore wind site characterization surveys could potentially cause whale deaths. There are no known links between large whale deaths and ongoing offshore wind activities.”

Climate change has made it difficult for researchers to discern the impacts of wind turbines on whales’ food supply. A government-commissioned report released by the National Academies in 2023 concluded that the impacts of New England’s offshore wind farms on the North Atlantic right whale were hard to distinguish from the effects of a warming world.

For much of the past month, since the aquarium got word of its funding being cut, its researchers have not been able to conduct whale-spotting flights. During this time, construction on Vineyard Wind and Revolution Wind in the southern New England wind energy area plowed forward.

Developers are required to have dedicated observers keeping watch for marine mammals from all construction and survey vessels. But, when it comes to spotting elusive leviathans, nothing quite beats a birds-eye view. The aquarium’s work surveying whales is important for several reasons, according to Erin Meyer-Gutbrod, an assistant professor at the University of South Carolina, who called the clawback ​“disappointing.”

The project has generated America’s longest-running dataset tracking whale movements near planned and active wind farm areas, she said.

The aquarium’s aerial monitoring dates back to 2011, when the footprints of today’s wind projects were first being sketched out. Historically, North Atlantic right whales were known to feed near southern New England during the winter and spring seasons. In 2022, the aquarium’s dataset allowed researchers to make a remarkable discovery: Unlike in most places on the East Coast, a small number of whales were appearing there year-round. The scientists believe that warmer waters driven by climate change have made the area an ​“increasingly important habitat” for these whales.

Meyer-Gutbrod said the species’ newly established presence should be a reason for the government to better scrutinize wind farm plans and adapt construction activities.

“Monitoring in and around the lease sites is critical for characterizing right whale distribution. The whales often have seasonal patterns of habitat use, but these patterns are changing. We can’t rely exclusively on historical surveys to guide future offshore development projects,” said Meyer-Gutbrod.

She stressed the importance of continued monitoring to better understand the well-documented hazards to these whales — vessel strikes and rope entanglement from fishing activities — which carry on along the margins of New England’s wind farms. Life-threatening entanglement has been documented in the zone long monitored by aquarium staff. For example, in 2018, aerial researchers were the first to identify that a male right whale, known to scientists as #2310, was caught in fishing rope. A rescue team was unsuccessful at dislodging the rope.

The Interior Department’s cuts come at a time when its own leader is expressing concern for whale populations.

“I’ve got save-the-whale folks saying, ​‘Why do you have 192 whale groundings on the beaches of New England?’’” said Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, at an event on Monday hosted by the American Petroleum Institute. He said he was paying attention to people claiming that humpbacks, rights, and other whale species started stranding en masse when ​“we started building these things,” referring to turbines.

No evidence supports these claims. In fact, Tuesday’s news that the North Atlantic right whale population grew by about 2% from 2023 to 2024 may be the strongest rebuke of Burgum’s statements. That time period coincided with the busiest time for U.S. offshore wind farm construction to date.

Since 2017, the imperiled whale has in fact experienced an annual ​“unusual mortality event.” Between 10 and 35 whales have shown up dead or seriously injured each year, many displaying injuries consistent with a boat strike. Vineyard Wind 1, America’s first commercial-scale offshore wind farm to get underway, didn’t start at-sea construction until 2022.

Remarkably, there’s been no right whale deaths documented in 2025 — even as five massive wind projects press on with construction in their home range. Heather Pettis, a scientist with the New England Aquarium, attributed this milestone to ongoing ​“management and conservation efforts,” which include the kind of close monitoring just scuttled by federal cuts.

The aquarium’s spokesperson told Canary Media that its aerial survey team conducted a flight over the southern New England wind energy area on Saturday ​“using other funding.” It’s unclear how long the program can survive without federal support.

On Monday, an aquarium staffer emailed a group of external scientists, welcoming ​“any suggestions that you might have for how to continue these surveys.”

North Carolina mulls how to manage power demand from data centers
Oct 23, 2025
North Carolina mulls how to manage power demand from data centers

From AI to Facebook to Google Maps, the nation’s demand for computing power is growing, with households in the U.S. now averaging a whopping 21 devices — think smartphones, TVs, and thermostats — all connected to the internet.

That was one of many statistics lobbed at North Carolina utility regulators last week as they gathered to grapple with the coming onslaught of data centers, the immense buildings filled with hardware that make our around-the-clock connectivity possible but could strain the state’s electric grid, raise utility bills, and increase pollution.

Over the course of a two-day discussion on how to avoid these downsides, one simple solution came up again and again: Data centers could commit to limiting their electricity consumption slightly for a handful of periods during the year, formalizing the practice of modulating energy use that’s already standard across the industry.

“One of the issues that the commission is particularly interested in is load flexibility,” Karen Kemerait, the commissioner presiding over the technical conference, said to more than one presenter last week, before pressing them on the concept.

In response to Kemerait, experts from Google and other tech giants, along with North Carolina’s predominant utility, Duke Energy, all voiced degrees of support for the notion.

Yet how and whether regulators move to actualize load flexibility remains unclear. The Utilities Commission isn’t required to take action following its Oct. 14 and 15 meeting. And unlike other reforms repeatedly mentioned, such as a special tariff for data centers, the policy doesn’t easily translate to a rate case or other dockets before the panel.

That’s part of why Tyler Norris, a former solar developer and a thought leader on load flexibility who presented last week, hopes it will become a choice for data centers if nothing else.

“At minimum, why not have a voluntary service option that enables a large load to connect faster in exchange for bounded flexibility?” Norris told Canary Media. ​“In every conversation I’ve been in, I’ve heard no objection to the idea. Obviously, it’s at the discretion of the commission — whether they want to encourage it.”

Data centers aren’t the only new large customers driving ever-growing electricity demand forecasts in North Carolina, which Duke used to justify a massive new fleet of gas plants in its most recent proposed long-term plan. But the centers are the most voracious consumers by far, accounting for over 85% of the energy demand in the economic development pipeline, the utility said last week.

Not all of these facilities in the pipeline will come to fruition: It’s not uncommon for tech companies to request grid connections in multiple locations before deciding where they’ll actually build. But many will materialize, posing thorny issues for the utility and its regulators.

What if Duke can’t build generation quickly enough to serve the energy-hungry centers? Can the company do so while still zeroing out its carbon pollution, as required by state law? How can regulators assure that tech giants, not residential customers, pay for new power plants and associated upgrades to the grid?

Load flexibility could provide an elegant answer to these vexing questions.

The idea is rooted in a counterintuitive reality: Data centers don’t run at maximum tilt 100% of the time — they routinely adjust processing power even as we can post videos to Instagram or EMS responders can transmit lifesaving patient data in the middle of the night.

That’s true for a number of reasons, Norris wrote on his Power and Policy site, including the fact that computer chips could overheat if stretched to their maximum theoretical processing speeds 24/7 and also that data centers plan for redundancy.

“Many facilities are overbuilt to ensure uptime, with servers periodically taken offline for routine maintenance, software upgrades, or hardware replacements,” Norris explained in the August post.

Information on data centers’ exact electricity use is scant, and it appears to vary based on type, but research suggests the facilities’ peak consumption is about 80% of what they could pull from the grid.

Yet utility planners typically assume otherwise, categorizing data centers as ​“firm loads” that need ​“firm capacity,” such as an on-demand power plant with an ample supply of fuel, plus an extra reserve margin — in Duke’s case, 22% — in the event of emergency.

In the simplest terms, while Duke might build 122 megawatts of generation to serve a data center that can draw a maximum of 100 megawatts of electricity, the center may never use more than 80 megawatts.

But if prospective data centers were transparent about their electricity-utilization plans and committed to them on paper, utilities could adjust how they anticipate new power capacity — averting the construction of massive amounts of fossil-fuel infrastructure as well as expensive grid improvements.

In September, analytics groups GridLab and Telos Energy published a report finding that Nevada’s biggest utility could delay the need for hundreds of megawatts of new power plants if data centers committed to modest flexibility terms that allow ​“uptimes” of 99.5%.

Similarly, Norris, a Ph.D. student at Duke University — which has no connection to the utility — is the lead author of a February paper showing that if data centers shaved just 0.5% off their use over the course of the year, 4.1 gigawatts of power capacity in Duke’s territory in the Carolinas could be avoided.

The figure ​“isn’t everything in terms of their load forecast,” Norris told regulators last week, ​“but it is arguably a meaningful share.”

While enlisting data centers to curtail their own energy use is still more theory than practice, that’s slowly starting to change. Pacific Gas and Electric in California, for instance, has piloted flexible service agreements that could get data centers online more quickly.

In August, Google announced voluntary flexibility agreements with Indiana Michigan Power and the Tennessee Valley Authority. The following month, the tech giant revealed a similar arrangement with Entergy in Arkansas.

The company vaunted those agreements, along with its plans to self-generate carbon-free electricity, at last week’s meeting. ​“Google is leaning in,” Rachel Wilson, a representative for the company, told commissioners.

The Data Center Coalition is an alliance of Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and dozens of other companies that own, operate, or lease data-center capacity. The coalition listed ​“voluntary demand response and load flexibility” as a recommendation to regulators last week, so long as data centers could get something in return — such as a quicker connection to the grid.

“There has to be some reciprocal value for data centers,” said Lucas Fykes, director of energy policy for the coalition.

Still, the AI race, a lack of transparency about data-center electricity use, and a genuine inability of anyone in this space to predict the future could complicate efforts around load flexibility.

“Not even the most sophisticated data center owner-operators” know what their load will look like in ​“a rapidly shifting competitive landscape,” Norris wrote in August. ​“Amid such uncertainty, their preference is generally to maintain maximal optionality.”

Indeed, though Duke expressed openness to load flexibility last week, the company advised caution for the long term.

“Looking at these [load-flexibility agreements] as temporary is important,” said Mike Quinto, the company’s director of planning analytics. ​“A well-designed voluntary program, that’s great. It’s not something we think should be mandated on a long-term basis.”

And while utilities are well-practiced in demand response for large industrial customers, Public Staff, the state-sanctioned customer advocate, voiced worry last week about scaling the same concept to data centers.

“We haven’t seen these magnitudes trying to interconnect and … potentially drop off the system,” said Dustin Metz, director of the agency’s energy division. ​“From an academic standpoint, if we can shave off some of those peaks, then that could potentially reduce some of the generation assets that we need to build out,” he said. But enforcement would be essential, and North Carolina is still new to data-center growth. ​“We’re a little bit of a living lab,” he said.

Why one Ohio couple is suing their city over rooftop solar fees
Oct 23, 2025
Why one Ohio couple is suing their city over rooftop solar fees

Utilities tend not to be big fans of rooftop solar, which eats into their revenues by reducing customer reliance on the power grid. A new Ohio lawsuit spotlights the tension between utilities and customers over the clean-energy technology.

The case deals with a monthly charge imposed by the city of Bowling Green’s municipal utility on its few customers with solar panels on their rooftops. Customers who use batteries to store surplus solar power pay even more.

Residents Leatra Harper and Steven Jansto claim the charge, which for them amounts to roughly $56 per month, is an unlawful ​“tax or penalty.” When combined with the city’s partial payment for power fed back into the grid, it almost doubles the payback period for their $37,000 solar system, the couple said.

The city argues the fee is needed to make sure other customers don’t subsidize those with rooftop solar. As households that produce some of their own electricity buy less from the utility, they pay less for fixed costs built into its retail rates, such as staffing, grid equipment, and maintenance. The utility would then look to other customers to make up the difference.

The situation echoes ​“cost-shift” arguments that have dogged rooftop solar around the nation. It could also be a preview of a statewide battle to come as the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio gears up to review and revise its net-metering rules, which determine how solar owners are compensated for the energy they send to the grid. Municipal utilities like Bowling Green are not subject to these rules, but the dynamics around the fairness of rooftop solar rates are similar in either case.

For their part, Harper and Jansto installed rooftop solar panels and battery storage at their home in 2019 and 2020 with hopes of lowering their electric bills and cutting their carbon footprint. The investment will eventually pay for itself because they now buy less electricity from the utility while getting some credit for excess fed back to the grid.

“We could get to near net-zero with a cost up front, but with a payback,” said Harper, who is managing director of the FreshWater Accountability Project, an environmental group.

Rooftop solar panels on a home against a cloudy sky
Leatra Harper and Steven Jansto installed a rooftop solar array, pictured above, on their home about six months before the city of Bowling Green adopted a monthly charge on households with such systems. (Leatra Harper)

Residential solar doesn’t just help those who invest in it.

“Rooftop solar helps to provide electricity locally. It reduces overall demand,” said Mryia Williams, Ohio program director for the nonprofit group Solar United Neighbors. That means less wasted energy because the power doesn’t need to travel as far as imported electrons, and it lowers stress on the transmission system as climate change exacerbates extreme weather and energy demand grows.

Energy fed into the grid from homeowners’ renewable energy systems can save other customers money, too.

“The highest demand periods on the grid tend to coincide with times when residential solar power is producing at its peak,” said Tony Dutzik, an associate director and senior policy analyst for the Frontier Group, a sustainability-focused think tank. ​“Those tend to be the times that utilities spend the most money to provide power for their customers.”

The health and environmental benefits of rooftop solar are ​“pretty obvious,” especially when excess energy offsets purchases from inefficient gas-fueled peaker plants, Dutzik continued. Less consumption of fossil fuels lowers greenhouse gas emissions and other pollution that is linked to multiple illnesses and more than 8 million deaths per year worldwide — problems that could worsen in the U.S. as the Trump administration rolls back climate policy.

What’s fair?

Policymakers have ​“oftentimes undervalued the benefits that rooftop solar can bring, and when you fail to really account for the benefits, you tend to wind up in the situation where people think it’s not fair,” Dutzik said.

Along those lines, Brian O’Connell, utilities director for Bowling Green, said via email that the city adopted its $4-per-kilowatt monthly charge for installed renewable capacity ​“to ensure rooftop solar customers were paying for the electric service they were receiving, and that the rooftop solar customers were not being subsidized by non-solar customers.”

The rationale resembles an argument promoted by ALEC, the American Legislative Exchange Council, since 2014. The Center for Media and Democracy has long criticized the group for coddling the fossil-fuel industry while working to suppress the vote and stifle dissent.

Consumer advocates and some academics have made similar cases in California, whose solar capacity leads the nation for both rooftop and overall.

But Harper and Jansto were surprised when they learned Bowling Green adopted its ​“Rider E” charge roughly six months after work on their home’s renewable energy system wrapped up.

The utility had seemed friendly toward solar: Its website touts the significant share of its power that comes from renewables. Yet while the city aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it does have a long-term ​“take-or-pay” contract to get about half of its electricity from the Prairie State coal plant in Illinois.

Legal and constitutional claims in the couple’s Sept. 19 complaint include unlawful and irrational discrimination. The City of Bowling Green filed its answer on Oct. 14, denying liability and asserting governmental immunity and other defenses.

O’Connell said the $4/​kW rate for the charge resulted from a cost-of-service analysis by the municipal utility’s consultant, Sawvel & Associates. The city charges a general retail rate of about 13 cents per kilowatt-hour for any electricity it sells to customers. However, it credits rooftop solar owners just 7.5 cents per kilowatt-hour for whatever they supply to the grid.

O’Connell responded to Canary Media’s request for information about how the Rider E rate was calculated by sharing two spreadsheets. Each lists total savings or costs for the utility from a rooftop solar customer’s energy production, including what the utility saves by not paying other sources for capacity, transmission, and wholesale energy when customers feed excess power onto the grid.

But the documents don’t detail how the utility spends the solar surcharge. It’s unclear whether the rooftop solar fees are helping pay for the Prairie State coal plant: O’Connell’s response to Canary Media’s question merely noted the city still has to purchase energy from the electric market.

Harper and Jansto’s case will move through legal motions and pretrial fact-finding, called discovery, during the coming months. Meanwhile, advocates worry about the broader questions the case raises.

“We can look at it both ways with who’s supporting whom whenever rooftop solar is installed,” said Williams of Solar United Neighbors. In her view, ​“it’s hard to believe that it’s some sort of subsidized rate,” especially if solar customers get only partial credit for letting others use their excess energy.

Ultimately, Dutzik said, rate systems still should not discourage people from investing in renewable energy for their homes. Indeed, if high fees delay recovery of investments for too long, ​“fewer people are going to get solar,” Dutzik said. ​“And that is going to drive up costs for other consumers.”

Rondo Energy turns on first major thermal battery — at an oil field
Oct 22, 2025
Rondo Energy turns on first major thermal battery — at an oil field

Thermal energy storage systems, which turn electricity into heat that can be tapped for hours or days at a time, could help decarbonize the production of everything from cement to beer.

But in the U.S., where the economics of replacing fossil fuels with electricity remain challenging, thermal-battery startup Rondo Energy has found its first industrial-scale opportunity in a more controversial place: the oil fields of California.

Last week, the San Francisco Bay Area-based firm announced the start of commercial operations for its first 100-megawatt-hour ​“heat battery,” located at a Holmes Western Oil Corp. facility in Kern County, the heart of the Central California oil patch.

The installation is housed in what looks like a four-story prefabricated office building. Inside sits a massive stack of refractory bricks, which are heated to temperatures of more than 1,000 degrees Celsius (1,832 degrees Fahrenheit) by an adjoining 20-megawatt solar array. That heat is tapped to generate steam that is injected into oil wells to increase production — a job previously done by a fossil-gas-fired boiler.

The project is something of a Faustian bargain. It will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 13,000 metric tons per year, said John O’Donnell, Rondo’s cofounder and chief innovation officer. But, of course, those reductions are in service of bringing more planet-warming fossil fuels to market.

Rondo’s argument for pursuing this application is twofold. For one, fossil fuels will be in use for decades to come, and so we might as well reduce emissions from the sector where we can. Second, thermal-storage startups need paying customers in order to scale up their technology, which could prove necessary to minimize pollution from a host of hard-to-decarbonize sectors.

“We’ve got to decarbonize the world the way it is right now,” O’Donnell told Canary Media in a Thursday call from the Washington, D.C., hotel hosting the annual summit of the Renewable Thermal Collaborative, a coalition of organizations working to cut emissions from heating and cooling. ​“And because California is kind of an island unto itself, we see this opportunity to make a very big impact in the state.”

Finding cost-effective projects in the U.S. has become even more important after the Trump administration canceled hundreds of millions of dollars in federal grants for industrial decarbonization efforts across the country. The defunded projects included ones that planned to use Rondo heat batteries: International spirits maker Diageo wanted to install the tech at its production sites in Illinois and Kentucky, while chemicals giant Eastman had agreed to add it to a plastics-recycling facility being built in Texas.

Those companies haven’t said if they plan to continue work on those projects absent federal funding, and O’Donnell declined to comment on their prospects. ​“We are ready to work with them when they’re ready to go,” he said.

But industry experts have pointed out that building first-of-a-kind thermal batteries is challenging without government funding to absorb some of the risk. The recent rollbacks jeopardize the U.S.’s ability to develop a technology that could play a major role in cleaning up industrial heating, which is responsible for roughly 13% of U.S. energy-related carbon emissions.

“Transitioning the world’s industrial economy to clean is going to take a minute — and by a minute, I mean multiple decades,” said Blaine Collison, executive director of the Renewable Thermal Collaborative. ​“This is a big shift that has to happen at a lot of discrete points. There are tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of facilities that have to be addressed.”

Building a first-of-a-kind project

Rondo’s first 2-megawatt-hour pilot-scale heat battery started operating two years ago at a California ethanol-production facility. But that served more as a ​“constructability test” for the company’s technology than as a full-scale proof point for commercial viability, O’Donnell said.

Rondo’s Kern County battery, meanwhile, is its first major installation, though it has several others in the works across Europe. It’s building similar heat batteries at a chemicals plant in Germany, a green industrial park in Denmark, and an undisclosed food-and-beverage processing facility in Spain or Portugal.

The market for Rondo’s tech is stronger in Europe, where companies pay much higher prices for fossil gas and face sizeable fees and taxes on their greenhouse gas emissions, O’Donnell said. In the U.S., by contrast, fossil gas is cheap, and only a handful of states impose costs on industrial carbon emissions.

California is one of those states. Under its cap-and-trade program, industrial polluters must reduce their greenhouse gas emissions below certain thresholds — otherwise they have to pay fines or purchase offsets to make up the difference. And under the state’s Low-Carbon Fuel Standard, companies that produce and sell fossil fuels with lower embodied emissions can earn credits they can use to reduce compliance costs.

Still, even in more competitive markets like Europe and California, Rondo has additional work to do to hit its long-range cost goals. O’Donnell said the company is targeting $30 per megawatt-hour for the energy storage services its heat batteries provide, which would put it well within the range of lithium-ion batteries, albeit for a system that stores heat rather than electrical energy.

But the Holmes Western project is ​“not close” to that price point, he said. Rather, it’s ​“owned by the customer at a price point that was economical to them.”

Soaking up excess clean power with heat batteries

The holy grail for thermal storage — the thing that will make it broadly cost-competitive with fossil-fueled heating — is tapping into cheap, clean power.

That’s because the cost of electricity is ultimately what dictates whether a thermal battery makes financial sense. But unlike fossil fuels, electricity prices vary not just from week to week, but from hour to hour. That makes it tricky for would-be customers to evaluate whether to stick with a gas boiler or to make a bet on an electricity-powered system like Rondo’s.

Solar and wind, however, reliably generate power at a very low cost. In some parts of the U.S. and the world, the amount of renewable energy available exceeds electricity demand for hours at a time, driving wholesale power prices to zero or even negative.

Storing this excess carbon-free electricity as heat can significantly cut costs for owners of thermal storage systems, O’Donnell said. The challenge for providers of the tech is to get utilities, regulators, and energy-market operators to allow industrial customers to access those low or negative energy prices, O’Donnell said. Today, most industrial sites buy their electricity from utilities at retail rates that don’t pass through these wide wholesale fluctuations.

This is especially true in California, where thermal batteries are ​“in many ways the perfect solution,” said Teresa Cheng, California director at Industrious Labs, an advocacy group focused on cutting emissions from heavy industry.

Solar power is close to overtaking fossil gas as the state’s predominant source of electricity. Much of it is generated at times when there isn’t enough demand for electricity to use it or enough battery capacity to save it for later, forcing the state’s grid operator to curtail increasing magnitudes of solar.

Thermal batteries could soak up that cheap renewable energy while helping industries decarbonize, Cheng said. But ​“to make this work, we need state leaders to fix industrial electricity rates so they actually reward companies for using cheap, clean power instead of letting it go to waste.”

Holmes Western Oil Corp. is in an unusual position of owning enough land surrounding its facility to build its own 20-MW solar array without connecting to the grid. That ​“islanded” system allows the company to self-supply solar power at a cost that justifies the project, O’Donnell said.

But that’s a rare occurrence. Most industrial customers will need to source power from the grid — and opportunities for them to access electricity at wholesale prices are few and far between.

Doron Brenmiller, cofounder and chief business officer of Israel-based thermal energy storage provider Brenmiller Energy, said Europe is moving more quickly than the U.S. to support heat batteries, including a number of projects his company is building. He cited the European Commission’s upcoming $1.2 billion pilot auction to fund efforts to decarbonize industrial process heat.

“The utilities in Europe are also very engaged in this space,” he said. Brenmiller has partnered with German energy-trading firm Entelios to integrate its growing roster of industrial thermal storage projects into a variety of ​“short-term flexibility markets” for specialty grid services like frequency regulation and demand response.

But getting the first large-scale projects up and running remains the most important next step for the industry, he said. Brenmiller expects its first industrial-scale project, a 32-megawatt-hour thermal storage unit at a beverage-processing plant in Israel, to start operations before the end of 2025. A second 30-megawatt-hour system at a pet-food factory in Hungary is scheduled to begin running in 2026.

“All the eyes of clients and investors are on these first few big projects,” he said. ​“We’ve done pilots, even at scale. But these are the real thing.”

Can cargo shipping stay the course toward cleaner fuels?
Oct 22, 2025
Can cargo shipping stay the course toward cleaner fuels?

This summer, an ammonia-powered ship completed its maiden voyage in eastern China, becoming the first of its kind to run purely on the carbonless compound. Around the same time, in Denmark, the shipping giant Maersk launched a big container ship that can use methanol, making it the fourteenth and largest vessel yet in the company’s growing low-carbon fleet.

Efforts like these are playing out worldwide as the maritime industry works to replace dirty diesel fuel in oceangoing ships, which haul everything from T-shirts and tropical fruit to solar panels, smartphones, and steel rebar. But the progress to date has been piecemeal, representing only a sliver of the world’s oil-guzzling freighters and tankers.

Up until last week, the United Nations’ International Maritime Organization appeared on the cusp of approving a strategy to supercharge shipping decarbonization worldwide. The plan was set in motion in 2015, after the U.N. adopted the Paris Agreement, clarifying the urgent need for countries and companies to reduce planet-warming pollution to zero.

“It sent a signal for the [maritime] industry to start thinking ahead,” said Narayan Subramanian, an expert on international climate policy and clean energy finance at Columbia Climate School.

In the ensuing decade, the IMO worked to hash out regulations that could jumpstart a universal transition toward cleaner ships. The agency landed on the Net-Zero Framework, which would require ships to use more low-carbon fuels and also establish a tax on carbon emissions — setting the first binding carbon-pricing scheme for an entire industry.

“This is not coming out of left field. It’s not being imposed overnight,” Subramanian said last week before IMO officials put the framework to a vote.

Yet on Oct. 17, after a full-throttle offensive from the Trump administration, the IMO moved to delay making any decision on the landmark decarbonization strategy by one year, keeping the industry locked in limbo. Many fuel producers, shipbuilders, and cargo owners have said they need reassurance that shipping is, in fact, charting a cleaner course before they invest billions of dollars in making new fuels and building related infrastructure.

“There is a lack of incentive globally for shipping operators to use clean fuels,” said Jade Patterson, an analyst for the research firm BloombergNEF. He said the framework would improve the business case for using hydrogen-based fuels like ammonia and methanol, which are significantly more expensive than oil- and gas-based fuels.

A smaller group of IMO members is meeting in London this week to drill down on the finer details of the proposed regulations, which will come up for a vote again in October 2026. But it’s unclear whether any global environmental agreement can succeed while President Donald Trump is in office.

In the meantime, the industry will continue guzzling greater volumes of fossil fuels as shipping activity grows over time.

Slashing CO2 from dirty ships

Tens of thousands of merchant ships ply the oceans every year to haul roughly 11 billion metric tons of goods. Together, they’re responsible for about 3% of the world’s annual greenhouse gas emissions.

The Net-Zero Framework was meant to give teeth to the nonbinding climate goals that IMO adopted in 2023. Member countries set near-term targets for reducing cargo-ship emissions by at least 20% by 2030, compared to 2008 levels. They also called for curbing emissions by at least 70% by 2040, and for reaching net-zero emissions ​“by or around” 2050.

Countries further agreed to have 5% to 10% of shipping’s energy use come from zero- or near-zero-emissions fuels and technologies by 2030.

Cylindrical equipment in a construction zone
A plant to produce green hydrogen and e-methanol for the maritime sector is shown under construction in 2023 in Lower Saxony, Germany. (Mohssen Assanimoghaddam/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Current adoption of those fuels amounts to a tiny droplet in an ocean’s worth of oil. Much of it is driven by voluntary efforts by companies like Maersk, which face pressure from investors and customers to clean up their fleets. Meanwhile, regional environmental policies are taking effect. European nations and China are working to rein in ship-engine pollution, and they and other countries — including Brazil, India, and, until recently, the United States — are steering government funding into hydrogen production.

Hydrogen is a key component of ammonia and methanol — two common chemicals that can be used in engines or fuel cells. How clean those fuels actually are depends largely on whether the hydrogen is produced using renewables, or the way that most H2 is made today: with fossil fuels. Renewable diesel, another lower-carbon option for powering vessels, also uses hydrogen in its production process.

If every project to produce green ammonia, green methanol, and renewable diesel comes online as planned, and if the fuels only go toward powering ships — not airplanes or vehicles or to other uses — they would make up less than 20% of global shipping’s fuel needs in 2030, which are expected to reach 290 million metric tons that year, Patterson said.

Those are two enormous ​“ifs.” Many of the announced fuel projects are facing serious headwinds, including high inflation, soaring production costs, and the Trump administration’s steep tariffs and clean-energy funding cuts. IMO’s recent decision to punt on its net-zero vote only deepens those challenges.

Last year, Danish energy giant Ørsted canceled plans to build a green-methanol plant in Sweden, citing weaker-than-expected interest from the maritime sector. Another Ørsted methanol project in Texas is facing uncertainty after the U.S. Department of Energy in May revoked an award of up to $99 million for the facility, as part of sweeping cuts to the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations. In the Netherlands last month, Shell said it is abandoning construction on a biofuels plant in Rotterdam owing to the fuel’s lack of competitiveness.

“What we’ve seen is that this lack of demand and the shift in policy has led many projects to fold,” said Ingrid Irigoyen, president and CEO of the Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance. ​“But that’s not because they weren’t good projects. These are good fuels that we need, and which are vastly scalable.”

The buyers alliance is a nonprofit group of about 50 multinational companies that helps negotiate clean-fuel contracts — including for waste-based biomethane — between producers, vessel operators, and firms that put their goods on ships. Irigoyen said such voluntary initiatives are meant to be a ​“catalyst” that helps to scale production and bring down costs of alternative fuels, not the sole engine of shipping decarbonization.

“We can’t do it alone,” she added.

Even as shipping-industry groups and climate experts push for a global policy, there’s still widespread disagreement about how the framework should work in practice. Environmental groups oppose including crop-based biofuels, like soy and palm oil, given that their production can lead to forest loss and increase overall emissions. Policy analysts note that the ripple effects of higher fuel costs and carbon taxes across supply chains could disproportionately affect small and developing economies.

As IMO members navigate those questions, shipbuilders and owners are holding their breath for the answers.

This year, the number of new orders for alternative-fueled vessels has markedly declined compared to last year as companies adopt a ​“wait and see” approach, according to Jason Stefanatos, global decarbonization director at DNV.

In September, the advisory firm recorded no fresh orders for ships capable of running on methanol or ammonia, though nearly 360 methanol ships and nearly 40 ammonia ships are on the books through 2030.

Subramanian noted that vessels and port equipment are often designed to last for decades, and that many shipping firms are at the point of deciding whether to invest in a status-quo fleet or the next, cleaner generation.

Decarbonization ​“is a very natural opportunity to upgrade shipping infrastructure that’s otherwise been around for 30 or 40 years,” he said. ​“And the investment-certainty piece is key to that.”

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